Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 23.455269 28.072543 33.134356 39.066295 45.797206 53.167343 61.816606
2025-08-24 16.464202 22.478847 29.732450 38.995707 50.373905 63.754288 80.528914
2025-08-31 11.988517 18.289784 26.507200 37.732655 52.368705 70.494613 94.297250
2025-09-07 9.677984 16.225406 25.336309 38.471884 56.409242 79.508182 110.895724
2025-09-14 7.569194 13.941687 23.388678 37.720931 58.143182 85.381848 123.527495
2025-09-21 6.384911 12.776359 22.783237 38.627537 62.004530 94.075392 140.070653
2025-09-28 4.884405 10.766286 20.568133 36.842181 61.779016 97.033872 148.877359
2025-10-05 4.273399 10.162228 20.457644 38.169766 66.074110 106.389849 166.742848
2025-10-12 3.697010 9.495292 20.128222 39.065623 69.704031 114.887060 183.664497
2025-10-19 3.186791 8.844662 19.721331 39.752503 72.990282 122.959851 200.212915
2025-10-26 2.790484 8.343121 19.502669 40.699982 76.690323 131.742430 218.037258
2025-11-02 2.304114 7.521463 18.560462 40.275889 78.102848 137.078325 230.929117
2025-11-09 1.935277 6.921885 18.039273 40.683825 81.130644 145.363984 249.070746
2025-11-16 1.577930 6.249901 17.276795 40.585240 83.325059 152.506545 265.870250
2025-11-23 1.204677 5.395046 15.967487 39.280260 83.302996 156.078795 277.283226
2025-11-30 1.025174 5.051484 15.735912 40.042900 86.933570 165.632252 298.223614
2025-12-07 0.798554 4.456158 14.802655 39.268033 87.707655 170.501581 311.931850
2025-12-14 0.686639 4.218637 14.701477 40.203486 91.655701 180.755763 334.461308
2025-12-21 0.493941 3.558470 13.380941 38.361176 90.242225 181.889307 342.351716
2025-12-28 0.436615 3.445768 13.510790 39.731168 95.036762 193.765526 367.978315
2026-01-04 0.374502 3.276590 13.450606 40.655458 98.997651 204.319612 391.706304
2026-01-11 0.316250 3.090765 13.306597 41.364039 102.555767 214.273623 414.688945
2026-01-18 0.271855 2.952124 13.279247 42.341319 106.691391 225.364513 439.827327